Europe faces yearslong defense gap as US scales back, study warns

Europe is being pushed to take the lead in its conventional defense faster than its militaries may be capable of doing so, creating a possible yearslong defense gap as the U.S. scales back its role on the Continent, a new assessment says

“European land forces are not yet the conventional backbone NATO needs,” the International Institute for Strategic Studies said in a wide-ranging assessment of capabilities released Wednesday

The analysis comes as Washington is pressing allies to assume primary responsibility for Europe’s conventional defense. The Pentagon also is conducting a force posture review in Europe to see whether current base locations and troop levels align with American security interests

However, European armies’ shortcomings are unlikely to be fixed before the end of the decade, according to the London-based think tank, which focuses on defense and security issues

Personnel, artillery, air defense and ammunition stockpiles remain deficient across many NATO countries even as governments pour hundreds of billions of dollars into rearmament, the report said

“Europe’s land forces are improving, but unevenly, belatedly and from a low base,” according to the report. “The central risk is a capability-time mismatch.”

The Pentagon’s 2026 National Defense Strategy calls for European allies to take the lead in defending the Continent with “critical but more limited support from the United States.”

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth followed that up in June by announcing a six-month review of the American presence in Europe intended to move NATO “rapidly and irreversibly” toward European responsibility for conventional defense

Some reductions already are in the works. The U.S. has already announced plans to move 5,000 personnelout of Germany. Part of that decision involved the cancellation of a planned long-range fires battalion deployment

Meanwhile, the Pentagon ended an Army brigade’s rotationalmission in Polandand has yet to replace it

In May, Washington notified NATO officials it would reduce the number of American strategic bombers, fighter jets, drones, submarines and warships to be made available under alliance crisis plans

A Norwegian NASAMS missile is fired from Andøya Space Range in Andøya, Norway, during exercise Formidable Shield, May 10, 2023. European nations are boosting defense spending and capabilities, but gaps in weapons stockpiles and uncertainty over the size of the U.S. military presence in Europe remain as the Pentagon reviews its force posture on the continent. (Royal Norwegian Navy)

In the event of conflict, those reductions could put greater pressure on European forces to monitor the northern Atlantic Ocean and the Baltic Sea, where underwater cables, pipelines and other critical infrastructure have become a growing security concern

While allies have expanded their own capabilities, reduced U.S. involvement could leave gaps in maritime surveillance

A separate analysis by the same think tank in June found that without American forces, “undersea awareness, particularly in the North Atlantic, would become less continuous, increasing the risk to reinforcement shipping.”

The military mobility and logistics network in Europe needed to rush forces forward in a crisis also presents problems, according to the institute

When it comes to reinforcing and supplying troops on the eastern edge of the alliance, U.S. Army logisticians based out of Germany play a major role in sustaining the force

It is not clear whether the Pentagon will make cuts to such units, but European militaries might struggle to pick up the slack, the report said

It added that allies lack sufficient fuel distribution capacity to the eastern flank, medical evacuation capacity, heavy armor rail transport capacity and mobile bridging equipment

Europe

Source: www.stripes.com