Modeling Climate Analogues of Climate Smart Village sites in West and Central Africa: Case Study from Benin, Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and Tchad – Burkina Faso

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Anani Ogou (1)*, Manjari Singh (1), Desire M. Kagabo (1), Mathieu Ouédraogo (1), and Peter Laderäch(1) | 1-Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT *Corresponding Author Email : a.ogou@cgiar.org, elaborated in July 2024

INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND

Climate analogue is a term given to represent locations/sites/places which are witnessing similar climates in present or in the future (James D. Ford et al., 2010). It is a tool used in order to implement on the ground the Future of Farm (FoF) approach developed by the Alliance of Bioversity and CIAT, which aims at helping farmers to learn climate resilience strategies opportunities from analogues sites to be used later on in the reference site (CCAFS, 2013).

In order to help farmers and rural communities from TARSPro project Climate Smart Villages (CSV) sites in Worogui-Goura (Benin), Ouda (Burkina Faso), Sabenebougou (Mali), Kieche (Niger), and Tambling (Tchad), the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT intends to support the implementation of Future of Farm (FoF) in collaboration with the NARES in West and Central Africa Region for a better resilience of small scale farmers in this region.

METHODS

• GPS coordinate of CSV site of Worogui-Goura (Benin), Ouda (Burkina Faso), Sabébébougou (Mali), Kiéché (Niger), and Tambling (Tchad).
• Growing season was considered from May to October, which corresponds to the rainy season in these countries, and thus the crop growing season.
• Climate variables considered for computing analogues were the mean monthly temperature and total precipitation. WorldClim data at 30sec resolution (https://www.worldclim.org/data/worldclim21.html) provided the present day climate data, and thus were considered as the target data. The future climate data (CMIP5; https://www.worldclim.org/data/v1.4/cmip5_30s.html) is available as the downscaled products of 33 Global Climate Models at RCP 8.5 for the year 2050 (IPCC, 2023).
• To avoid biasness in model selection, random sampling was done.
• Climate Dissimilarity Index (CDI) was computed using CCAFS formula (CCAFS, 2013) for each variable (temperature and Precipitation).
• R.3.4 was used for modeling the climate Analogues data

CONCLUSION & RECOMMENDATIONS AND WAY FORWARD

The Climate Analogues modeling tool is a science-based decision making tool that helps taking advantage of climate change adaptation and mitigation options for a better planning of CSA which leads to better resilience of rural communities to the changing climate in the future. A comprehensive list of the top ten sites exhibiting higher similarity with the future climate of selected villages in the year 2050 were made available to each country team. A questionnaire have been developed by CIAT and shared with country team to make a prescreening of the top 3 sites among the 10 taking into account some feasibility conditions such as CSA, socio-cultural and economic opportunities to learn, proximity of the analogues sites, accessibility, and the socio-political conflict situation in the country.

The implementation of the Farm of the Future (FoF) approach in TARSPro intervention countries, namely, Benin, Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and Tchad is planned to be held with the rural communities in early beginning of September 2024

Source: reliefweb.int